November Update
Mark Berube, ChFC, CLU · Nov 11, 2026
Where price is
ETH is down. Here are the numbers first, before anything else.
- ETH price: $2,082 (Nov 10, 2026 close)
- Over the last month: down $403, or 16.2%, from the Oct 9 close of $2,485
- Since our last letter: down $340, or 14.0%, from the Nov 4 close of $2,422
- Over five weeks: down $644, or 23.6%, from the Oct 5 open of $2,726
The pattern
We measured every ETH rally since 2016. Every big multi-leg rally since 2019 had the same shape: jump, rest, jump. A first leg up, a pullback of 21% to 27%, then a second leg larger than the first. We identify the rest as a bear trap: the drop that shakes sellers out before the second leg.
The current run started at the June 25 low of $1,565 and rose 77% to $2,776 on Sep 21. At $2,082, ETH is 25.0% off that peak, inside the $2,015 to $2,204 zone where all four past rests ended. This rest is running long, like the slower 2022–24 run.
We read it like a traffic light, on the daily close:
Where we are: yellow. A bear trap is only confirmed in the rear-view mirror. Our Bear Traps letter explains how they work.
The math
While price rested, the numbers underneath kept going up.
Put simply: AI agents pay in stablecoins. Stablecoins move on Ethereum. The law for stablecoins starts Jan 18. And more ETH is being locked up in staking every quarter.
Financial Education: Bear Traps
A bear trap is a fake breakdown. Price falls far enough to convince you the bottom is gone. You sell to protect yourself. Then it turns and runs higher without you.
The "bear" is the investor betting on lower prices. The "trap" is that the drop was the bait.
How it plays out
- The correction. Price slides for a few weeks and the headlines turn negative. It falls to a line everyone watches, like a long-term average or a prior low.
- The undercut. Price closes below the line. Everyone sees it break. Fear takes over.
- The selling. Investors sell to "protect what's left." It feels responsible.
- The reversal. Price snaps back above the line, often hard. The news didn't change. The selling simply ran out.
- The lockout. The rebound is so fast that sellers can't get back in. They wait for a pullback to their sale price that never comes.
The whole trap is in one picture: the break below the line is the bait, and the sellers' price is never offered again.
Why it happens
- Selling runs out. Once everyone who was going to panic has sold, no one is left to push prices lower.
- Trapped sellers become buyers. Those who sold or bet against the market start losing money. Most buy back in, and that buying adds fuel.
- Failed breakdowns snap back hard. The move after a failed break is often stronger than the move a real one would have produced.
Not every break is a trap. Long, painful declines come from deeper problems, like a bubble or a credit crisis. Traps come from scares.
Where pattern recognition comes in
A bear trap can only be confirmed in the rear-view mirror. While it's happening, it looks exactly like a real breakdown. Nobody rings a bell.
Pattern recognition doesn't tell you the day it turns. It gives you a plan made in calm markets: where past rests have ended, and the level that would prove the pattern wrong. That is why our ETH read is a traffic light. Yellow is the rest, the zone where traps are built. Red is the line we set in advance. Everything in between is noise.
Advanced Financial Education: Is the Bond Market Setting a Bear Trap?
The same pattern can show up in interest rates. Our read: the bond market may be setting one right now.
The scare
October's inflation report came in hot. Consumer prices rose 0.4% versus 0.3% expected. Core prices, which leave out food and energy, rose 0.3% versus 0.2%. A Federal Reserve governor said a reading like this puts a half-point rate hike on the table for December.
The bond market reacted right away. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 11 basis points to about 4.76%. The 2-year jumped about 18. When short-term rates rise faster than long-term rates, the market is pricing in a Fed hike before the Fed acts. The bond market is doing the Fed's tightening for it.
The two causes are reversing
The two forces that pushed inflation up this year were oil and AI. Both are now going the other way.
- Oil. Overall inflation slowed from 0.6% in September to 0.4% in October as gasoline prices eased.
- AI. Prices of AI-related electronics cooled. Goods prices came down too, helped by price cuts on cars.
The market agrees. The inflation swap market prices inflation at about 2.07% a year from now, basically the Fed's 2% target.
The Treasury is accommodative
The U.S. owes about $40 trillion. A Treasury carrying that much debt can't afford a decline in growth, and its actions say so.
- At its Nov 4 refunding, Treasury kept its sales of longer-term notes and bonds unchanged at $125 billion and leaned on short-term bills to fill the gap (Treasury refunding, via PrimeRates; Finimize).
- Since Sep 9, it has doubled the size of its buybacks of longer-dated bonds, to at least $4 billion per operation (U.S. Treasury).
In plain terms: Treasury is not flooding the market with long bonds, and it is buying some back. That works against rates running away.
The setup
- The scare. Yields climb over the next couple of weeks. Stocks feel the pressure. Investors sell to get out of the way.
- The pricing. By the Fed's Dec 9 meeting, a big hike may already be fully priced in. The market will have done the work.
- The turn. When the feared news arrives, it changes nothing, because it's already in the price. Our research suggests rates may make one more push to new highs, possibly past September's peak, before showing exhaustion. Then they could fall as fast in December as they rose in November.
From here to the Fed meeting is about four weeks. If yields peak around the meeting, the scare plays out in roughly one to three weeks, the classic bear-trap window.
The rear-view mirror rule still applies. We won't know this was a trap until it's over. What we do know is the pattern: fear peaks when the news is fully known, and the investors who sell into it are the ones left on the sidelines when it turns.
Sources for this section: CNBC on October CPI; MLQ on the Fed governor's half-point comment; Bloomberg's Anna Wong on the CPI details; Treasury and press links above.
Financial Comprehension
Here is this whole letter, explained so a 12-year-old can follow it.
The price. ETH's price went down about 24% in five weeks. That's the part everyone sees.
The pattern. ETH's biggest climbs come in two jumps with a rest in between: jump, rest, jump. ETH made its first jump this summer. Now it's resting. In the past, the second jump was the bigger one. We use a traffic light to tell where we are. Right now it's yellow, which means wait.
The math. Think of Ethereum as a highway for money.
- More trucks use the highway every year. That's usage.
- Computer helpers called AI agents pay each other in digital dollars, called stablecoins.
- Most digital dollars travel on this highway.
- A new law that sets the rules for digital dollars starts Jan 18. Big banks wait for rules before they drive on a new road.
- People are locking up their ETH to help run the highway. That's staking. Locked-up ETH is ETH nobody is selling.
The bear trap. Imagine everyone says the ice cream truck isn't coming, so kids leave the line. Then the truck shows up, and the kids who left are now at the back. Selling during a scare is leaving the line right before the truck arrives.
The bonds. Grown-ups got worried that prices are rising, so interest rates jumped. But the two things that pushed prices up, gas and computer parts, are getting cheaper. And the government owes so much money that it doesn't want rates running too high. So the scare may be bigger than the problem.
What we do. We don't sell good things at scary prices. We watch the math, and we watch the light.
Questions? Email us at info@patriotadvisory.com.
Mark Berube, ChFC, CLU · President, Patriot Advisory Group LLC (dba Quantum Capital)
Important disclosures. This letter is prepared by Quantum Capital, a doing-business-as name of Patriot Advisory Group LLC, a registered investment adviser with the State of New Hampshire. It is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a solicitation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. References to specific securities, instruments, or asset classes are for illustrative purposes and do not represent a recommendation. All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Digital asset markets are highly volatile and subject to regulatory uncertainty. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This letter contains forward-looking statements, which are opinions and not guarantees. Third-party data is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed. Prices cited are as of the dates shown.
Pattern figures use Coinbase ETH-USD daily closes. Historical patterns describe the past, four or five cases is a small sample, and patterns can fail. Patriot Advisory Group, its principals and its clients hold ETH and Ethereum-related securities and may buy or sell them at any time.
Position disclosure. I own shares of BitMine Immersion Technologies (BMNR).
Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. Our Form ADV is available on request. Please consult your investment adviser regarding the suitability of any investment for your specific situation.
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